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Eurozone · EUR · central banks
ECB Main Refinancing Rate
1/1/1970, 7:45:00 AM · Importance 3/3 · Status upcoming
Previous
4.25%
Forecast
4%
Actual
—
Revised
—
Why this release matters
ECB decision sets the euro-area policy path. A hawkish hold or smaller cut than expected supports EUR; a larger cut or dovish guidance pressures it.
Scenario analysis
Hotter / stronger
Hawkish surprise → EUR strengthens, DXY softens.
In line
Expected cut delivered → reaction depends on guidance and press conference.
Cooler / weaker
Dovish surprise or bigger cut → EUR weakens, DXY firms.