Daily Macro Brief
Thursday, September 3
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Stale02:44 PM
Market Regime
Risk-On
Confidence 59Growth data is firm and risk appetite is intact.
Supporting
- Growth supportive (0.91)
- Labor supportive (1.60)
Conflicting
- No conflicting factors.
Next major catalyst
ECB Main Refinancing Rate
Eurozone · EUR · Importance 3/3
released 496782h 59m· 07:45 AM
Event risk elevated. Pre-release biases are conditional on the print.
Today in plain English
Markets begin the session focused on Eurozone ecb main refinancing rate. A result above consensus would likely support the underlying macro factor while a softer print would favor the opposite reaction. Because the release has not occurred, related biases remain conditional. Nonfarm Payrolls printed 254K versus 190K expected — a upside surprise that is being reflected in the risk-sensitive tilt of SPX, NDX, DXY.
Asset biases
Restrained colors · Bullish / Bearish / Neutral / MixedS&P 500SPX
Neutralextreme vol
52
Confidence
- Growth supports SPX (score 0.91, sens +0.96).
Invalidation: A materially weaker read on Growth would invalidate the bullish bias.
4 linked eventsAnalyze
Nasdaq 100NDX
Neutralextreme vol
52
Confidence
- Growth supports NDX (score 0.91, sens +0.90).
Invalidation: A materially weaker read on Growth would invalidate the bullish bias.
2 linked eventsAnalyze
US Dollar IndexDXY
Neutralextreme vol
52
Confidence
- Growth supports DXY (score 0.91, sens +0.38).
Invalidation: A materially weaker read on Growth would invalidate the bullish bias.
3 linked eventsAnalyze
EUR / USDEURUSD
Neutralextreme vol
52
Confidence
- No decisive macro factor for EURUSD in today's data.
Invalidation: A sharp surprise on any high-impact release would break the neutral bias.
2 linked eventsAnalyze
GBP / USDGBPUSD
Neutrallow vol
45
Confidence
- No decisive macro factor for GBPUSD in today's data.
Invalidation: A sharp surprise on any high-impact release would break the neutral bias.
0 linked eventsAnalyze
USD / JPYUSDJPY
Neutrallow vol
58
Confidence
- No decisive macro factor for USDJPY in today's data.
Invalidation: A sharp surprise on any high-impact release would break the neutral bias.
1 linked eventAnalyze
GoldXAUUSD
Neutralextreme vol
52
Confidence
- No decisive macro factor for XAUUSD in today's data.
Invalidation: A sharp surprise on any high-impact release would break the neutral bias.
2 linked eventsAnalyze
Crude Oil (WTI)WTI
Neutrallow vol
70
Confidence
- Growth supports WTI (score 0.91, sens +0.77).
Invalidation: A materially weaker read on Growth would invalidate the bullish bias.
1 linked eventAnalyze
BitcoinBTC
Neutrallow vol
45
Confidence
- No decisive macro factor for BTC in today's data.
Invalidation: A sharp surprise on any high-impact release would break the neutral bias.
0 linked eventsAnalyze
US 2Y YieldUS2Y
Neutralextreme vol
52
Confidence
- Labor supports US2Y (score 1.60, sens +1.28).
Invalidation: A materially weaker read on Labor would invalidate the bullish bias.
2 linked eventsAnalyze
US 10Y YieldUS10Y
Neutralextreme vol
52
Confidence
- Growth supports US10Y (score 0.91, sens +0.64).
Invalidation: A materially weaker read on Growth would invalidate the bullish bias.
3 linked eventsAnalyze
Today's catalysts
6 events02:00 AM
JPYBoJ Meeting Minutes
Prev —Fcst —Act —
06:30 AM
USDNonfarm Payrolls
Prev 175KFcst 190KAct 254KRev 168K
07:45 AM
EURECB Main Refinancing Rate
Prev 4.25%Fcst 4%Act —%
08:30 AM
USDCPI YoY
Prev 3.2%Fcst 3.1%Act —%
09:00 AM
USDNew Home Sales
Prev 675KFcst 680KAct —K
09:30 AM
USDEIA Crude Oil Inventories
Prev -1.8MbblFcst -0.5MbblAct —Mbbl
Some releases are missing structured data. Confidence is reduced for related assets.
SPXNeutralWhy this bias?
- Growthscore 0.91 · contrib +0.96
- Rate expectationsscore 0.00 · contrib +0.00
- Monetary policyscore 0.00 · contrib +0.00
- Risk sentimentscore 0.00 · contrib +0.00
NDXNeutralWhy this bias?
- Growthscore 0.91 · contrib +0.90
- Rate expectationsscore 0.00 · contrib +0.00
- Monetary policyscore 0.00 · contrib +0.00
- Risk sentimentscore 0.00 · contrib +0.00