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US 10Y Yield
US10YNeutralextreme volConfidence 52 · Score 0.14
Why this bias
- Growth supports US10Y (score 0.91, sens +0.64).
Invalidation: A materially weaker read on Growth would invalidate the bullish bias.
Transmission chain
Illustrative — relationships are tendencies, not guarantees.
Growth + inflation firm
Term premium up
10Y yield rises
Factor breakdown
| Factor | Score | Sensitivity | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | 0.91 | 1.00 | +0.64 |
| Inflation | 0.00 | 1.20 | +0.00 |
| Monetary policy | 0.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 |
| Rate expectations | 0.00 | 1.30 | +0.00 |
Calculated 3:25:13 PM · Engine v1.0.0
Upcoming catalysts
08:30 AM
USDCPI YoY
Prev 3.2%Fcst 3.1%Act —%
06:30 AM
USDNonfarm Payrolls
Prev 175KFcst 190KAct 254KRev 168K
09:00 AM
USDNew Home Sales
Prev 675KFcst 680KAct —K
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Educational note
These relationships are historical tendencies; they can weaken or reverse in different macro regimes. Use bias and confidence as inputs to your own process — never as an execution signal.